Recession-Proof or Not?

[talesofthesevenseas]

I'm curious what the effects of the current recession are on the particular antiques markets that you follow. I find it interesting that some item values seem to have plummeted, while others seem strangely recession-proof.

For example, I was really surprised to see how the iron garden gnome's value held up over the course of the last few years, whereas other antiques are selling for about half of what they were a couple of years ago.

Any comments or theories on this?

I've just been pondering that question tonight. It's like picking winning stocks. Damn... I should have sunk every cent into garden gnomes!!

[KC]

A very wise friend of my advised me on several areas that have always done well in recession times - and I laughed at first!  However, what he said is in fact true I must say!

Jewelry
Liquor
Garden and Home decorative items
Cigarettes

He stated that when people cannot afford alot - they still have some pick-me-ups they splurge on.  More people garden and raise their own food, (supplement or totally) and like to brighten up the outside - so they invest in items that are die-hard tried and true.

When you look at this economy - I have several friends in the jewelry business that are having a better year than they have had in years.  Makes you think of the WWII era - the small luxury items were a big hit then also - and are some of the biggest collectibles still today!

[railman44]

Price has always hovered where demand and supply meet.  Where the two intersect is where the price can be found.  This has always been a difficult concept for many to understand.  If there's no demand, rarity means little if anything. 

[Chris_Marshall]

talesofthesevenseas: " ... Damn... I should have sunk every cent into garden gnomes!! ... "

I am astonished you hadn't done that, after all that's the first rule in ecognomics: providing aid to all those poor gnomads, *snicker*

"'Ere! what's that clicking sound?" - "That's Fred. He's a metrognome."

[Texasbadger]

Antique firearms and militaria,,,,the quality medium to high end still sell, the common items are not selling, easy to buy, very hard to sell at shows.

[Chris_Marshall]

Texasbadger: I second that. Not my cup of tea but easy to get into here in Germany. Most die-hard (and well-paying) collectors have crept back under the proverbial stones after eBay and such was slowly swamped with cheap imitations, especially during the last year following some China-related import changes. Hence the fakes later on got so "good" that even experts had difficulties holding them apart from the real thing. Per coincidence it met up with the dwindling economy here and everything on the lower end of the price scale (medals, insignia, knives, trench tools, helmets, etc.) is not worth the bother while other things e.g. a breech block with breech ring for a German Type 99 (88mm) FLAK sells for $$$ as nobody in his true mind would fake one (yet) as it weighs a ton in material and is quite unhandy. Plus everybody with a bit of knowledge on steel can easily identify modern fakes - a chunk of double-hardened and stainless Krupp steel like that sticks out like a sore thumb in any heap of repro junk.

[D&b antiques]

The furniture market. changes constantly, what does not change' is depression era furniture, cheaply made & low value. Waterfall does fairly well. Art's & Craft's also.

It's a constant ''Pain'' Light woods are in dark wood's are out. light woods are out deco is in etc.

[Texasbadger]

Yes once the wall came down access became available to original dies and stamps that before had not been used since the war, making fakery even harder to detect.  Chris keep me in mind should you find a stash.

[waywardangler]

To paraphrase ...You want a recession?  You can't handle a recession!  I can't help it, it just popped into my mind.  I have heard there is a recession but I am still waiting for it at the auctions and sales I attend (in the Midwest).  The money still flows freely at these markets and the prices are not lower on the items I bid on or want. They always seem lower on items other bidders get.  Also, when we go out to eat, the restaurants are full (with waits of 45min to an hour sometimes) of diners so I am wondering what type of recession we actually are in?  Collectors will always buy what they 'need' for their collection.  They may scrimp on clothes or a new car or something else but not on their collection.  I think it is a mental obsession that takes precedence over other goods.  Common items took a hit because the market is flooded with them and mature/older/experienced collectors have enough of those items.  The 'good' stuff that seldom surfaces always has a willing buyer.  I do agree with railman on rarity and demand.  Items can be so rare as to negate any demand for them.  There must be enough to create a demand in collectors.  A one-of rare item will only satisfy one collector and then the demand has gone.  I really think the major future problem is having interested young collectors.  I do not see them at shows or sales or flea markets.  Is the future hot collectible early personal electronic gizmos?

PS. I would buy iron garden gnomes if I ever see them.  They would be great in the flower garden.  I have a common concrete one.

[regularjoe2]

I would gnomeinate really good artwork (and some 'bad' art too) .

I was able to buy a Monet this year , at a price that I should be punished for .

Purchased in-person , at a French estate .... goes to show that even the rich can fall on hard times (or stupid mistakes) .

Still can't believe it !

[talesofthesevenseas]

I agree that "feel good" items do seem to be much more recession-proof than other types of items. I've certainly been guilty of that kind of spending myself!

Enjoying all the great "gnomenclature".

[fancypants]

Posting this under my other gnome-de-plume .....

I've seen so much fine stuff go up for sale in 2009/2010 that I am thinking that folks are a bit scared , world-wide , about ecognome-ic issues/solutions/uncertainties .

I see many items that fall short of the 'practical use' catagory getting sent off to the highest/quickest bidder - this including LOTS of items that are of investment quality .

I'm thinking that this small trend is a bit of an anomaly (except in 'declared' wartimes) , but as people age (and their heirs take over) sometimes their priorities change & items get liquidated .

I'm 'stocking-up' on items that I think will -
1. Hold their value , regardless of 'fashion' trends.
2. Remain investment-quality pieces.
3. Return 200% (or better) of my purchase price & expenses.

I'm giving 'it' a few years (2-7 years) for revitalization to occur , before putting some select goodies on the market .

I am sure that it's a great time to be an informed buyer !

[Chinese Antique Furniture]

I remember what a wise antique dealer in high end stuff once told me: "Antiques are like stocks.  Their prices go up and they go down."

I agree with what has been said in response to your very good question, Tales.  Friends of mine in the antique business report that sales of furniture in general have been soft, while sales of small items have been going strong.  I think it is significant that many established shows are being cancelled for 2010. 

In general, I think the business model for the antiques business is awful.  First, the dealer buys the item(s) they think they can sell at a higher price.  Right off the bat, it's a lousy model.  That model in the real estate market would mean that every real estate agent would have to buy the house they are trying to sell!!  Second, the dealer has to use their own money to market the item.  Again money out the door with only a hope/prayer that the item will sell.

The model for selling that still has risks - but fewer of them - is the auctioneer's model, or the consignor's model.  The auctioneer gets paid part of the price for the item regardless of the price for which it sells, and he only incurs marketing expense out of his own pocket.

I know too many starving antique dealers and too few successful ones.

[Dean Perdue]

Price has always hovered where demand and supply meet.  Where the two intersect is where the price can be found.  This has always been a difficult concept for many to understand.  If there's no demand, rarity means little if anything. 

IMO very well said Railmann44.
Who can forcast the latest trends or hot items consistently?
As the rich get richer and the poor poorer I would think the best of the best will continue to increase in price and fetch record prices while maybe the common and more easily found might take a dive due to competitiveness for your $.
Definitely see less and less money being spent on items that are not necessary (maybe that has to do with location) as more and more are struggling to keep a roof over their head.
On the other side of the coin items are coming out of the woodwork that may of never been offered in the first place had the economy been stable.
I try to get only what is truly loved thinking if I get stuck with it no biggie.